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This newsletter explores how money moves, around the world — and why it matters.
Originally, this was going to be an essay on the key fintech trends worth watching in 2026, and my predictions for where the industry is heading. You can probably guess some of the topics: stablecoins, agentic commerce, mobile wallets, and so on. Nothing too unique or remarkable. Likely 90% of the other 2026 prediction posts you’ve read would be similar. But don’t stop reading — at least not yet, because when I started to think a bit more deeply, I started to notice something else.
In this edition: why almost every trend in payments is impacted by our fracturing world, geopolitical competition is seeping through every layer of what we once thought were apolitical networks and rails. In short, fintech is getting messier.
Last week in Davos, Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, gave a speech that was lauded by many analysts for stating the reality of the world in 2026.
Every day we are reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry… Many countries are drawing the same conclusions. They must develop greater strategic autonomy: in energy, food, critical minerals, in finance, and supply chains.
This analysis is spot on.
We can all see that the world is mired in tariffs, sanctions, wars, uncertainty. There’s no sign that these trends will decelerate. If anything, we are in a new normal. The world that we had from 1991 to 20221 has gone. The era of relative world peace that lasted from the end of the Cold War to the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine2 is over.
The changing dynamics
Today’s flux is partly because the unipolar moment is over.
For the past thirty years or so the US was the only superpower in town. In recent years the relative strength of other countries and blocs has increased. US domestic politics is changing the foreign policy discussion, with the US now focusing increasingly on the Western hemisphere (as seen in November 2025’s National Security Strategy document). Europe is beginning to stand on its own two feet, and Chinese influence is spreading globally.
To understand what all this means for fintech, we need to talk about geopolitics.
It’s a word we hear more and more in the news. Sometimes overused. But understanding how states and organisations interact through the convergence of power, resources, geography and technology is a useful lens for analysing how interconnected systems create both opportunity and vulnerability.
Fintech doesn’t exist in a vacuum — although sometimes industry commentary makes it sound as if it does. We often focus — and we can all be guilty of this — on the latest big trends, gigantic funding rounds, and outsized personalities while some of the biggest shifts, which really make the difference in fintech, are often missed.
How money moves is ever-changing, yet exactly how you’re impacted depends on your geography. In part, this is because geopolitics and fintech rub shoulders every day. You’ll find this dynamic in news stories nestled in the New York Times, The Economist, the Financial Times and beyond.
Consider a few examples from the past decade or so:
A post-Maduro bounce for e-commerce in Latin America?
Mercado Libre is Latin America’s answer to a super app. Almost 30 cents of every dollar spent online in the region is via the platform. In terms of fintech, Mercado Pago is its fintech arm, processing more than $142bn in payment volume in 2024.
Following the intervention of the US military in Venezuela and the ousting of President Maduro, Mercado Libre’s share price increased substantially. Climbing by 10% in the three days that followed the military operation.
In fact, stock markets across the region, including Venezuela’s, popped in the days that followed the raid. After over a decade of less-than-favourable economic policies (from the perspective of capitalism and free enterprise), investors are hoping that the Venezuelan economy will finally stabilise. Firms such as Mercado Libre may soon reap the rewards.
Visa and Mastercard’s exit from Russia
Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014, as a result of US sanctions, Visa and Mastercard cut off several Russian banks from their payment networks, including Bank Rossiya, which US and EU officials claimed was the bank for Putin’s inner circle.
In response, Russia created the National Payment Card System (NSPK) to ensure all transactions stayed within local data centres. Additionally, a domestic payment scheme called Mir was established to insulate the Russian economy from further impacts of sanctions.
In the years that followed, several countries began to accept Mir cards. These were countries that are neutral or even friendly with Russia. For instance, Turkey, Belarus, Tajikistan, and Abkhazia — an occupied area of Georgia that’s under Russian control. (Cuba announced acceptance of Mir cards a bit later, in 2023.)
In 2022, following the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Visa and Mastercard withdrew entirely from Russia. The country made up around 4% of each company's revenue in 2021. PayPal and American Express also exited Russia at the same time.
In the past few years many countries have stopped accepting Mir cards at ATMs and blocked them for payment acceptance. Turkey is one such example, and countries that still accept Mir cards often severely limit their acceptance due to the fear of secondary sanctions from the US.
India bans Chinese e-commerce apps
In 2020, following clashes in the disputed Ladakh region, India banned tens of Chinese-owned apps from operating in the country. The reason given was that the apps were prejudicial to the sovereignty and integrity of India, the defence of India, and the security of state and public order.
Alipay, Shein, TikTok and various e-commerce apps were among those banned.
This left space for domestic players to flourish — including UPI3 payment apps such as PhonePe and Paytm, as well as local e-commerce companies such as Myntra.
India's digital payments ecosystem, now insulated from Chinese tech, has become one of the world's largest.
There are plenty of other such examples. Almost every country is increasingly thinking of fintech and payments in terms of national interest. Regulation is increasingly shaped by geopolitical concerns. Market stability and consumer protection will always be important to regulators, but policymakers are acutely aware that financial flows can be impacted by events happening in faraway lands.